For the record
We would rather show the work. A few moments where our models diverged from the headlines—and what followed.
The Risk-Off Composite is engineered to fire near a peak: each input must trigger within a set distance of a multi-year high, as leadership quietly narrows beneath a still-rising market.
It flagged the deterioration that preceded the 2000–02 and 2007–08 bears; the higher the signal count, the deeper the decline that followed.
With major indices near their highs, internal breadth and liquidity were already failing beneath the surface. The Trifecta Lens Score flashed distress roughly 45 days before the late-2018 low.
It crossed back above zero shortly after the bottom, signalling the all-clear ahead of the recovery that followed.
After a Risk-Off signal sparked the correction, the Capitulation Composite caught panic selling at its worst, and the Bottom Composite confirmed downside exhaustion as fewer stocks made new lows—the same sequence seen in 1998.
Following Bottom signals, the S&P 500 has risen 84% of the time over the next year, a median +20.2%; after Capitulation signals, every instance advanced, a median +24%.
Solar equities sat at five-to-ten-year valuation lows, universally abandoned by value and growth investors alike. Rather than catch the multi-year decline, the framework waited for the technical inflection.
Off the May 2025 lows the group outperformed the S&P 500 by roughly 70%.